by Mad Dog

   At the time I made an election prediction based on the best and most reliable election predictions I could get my hands on — stock market performance, how the candidates parted their hair, their height, how the Redskins would play, whether the Lakers would win, some obtuse algorithm I found, and world renown psychic, Bob91322. The predictions indicated that John Kerry would win. Boy, were they ever wrong by a landslide. Okay, a mandate. Okay, okay, a solid 3 percentage point margin.

   So where did I go wrong? I didn’t. The indicators did. After all, if the buck won’t stop in the Oval Office I see no reason why it should stop here. Hey, do I look like a patsy? (NOTE: The preceding question is rhetorical.) So lets take a look at the predictions one by one. It will be instructional, educational, and face it, we need something to do now that there’s no Scott Peterson trial to keep us glued to Court TV 24, uh, seconds a day.

   Next is the Won By A Hair category. According to True Mirror, a company no one ever heard from before and won’t hear from again for another four years, only 6.97 percent of American presidents parted their hair on the right. Kerry and Bush both part on the right, meaning there was no clear winner. Since Bush won, it means either Kerry parts his hair on the left when he’s in the privacy of his own home — not that there’s anything wrong with that, Mary Cheney — or True Mirror needs to take a long, hard look at itself, preferably in another company’s mirror.

   Then there was the perennial predictive question: Does size matter? Men everywhere will be relieved to know that the answer is: Apparently not. Not only does that make us happy, but our wives and girlfriends will be relieved to know they don’t have to lie anymore. According to USA Today, in the past 25 years only once had the shorter candidate won the presidential election. Well, you can make that twice now. And yes, both times the winner who bucked this incredible predictor was George Bush. See if I ever again believe anything I read in USA Today as I leaf through it before putting it back and buying the Weekly World News. Hah!

   For 70 years it’s been true that if the Washington Redskins win their last home game before the election, so would the incumbent. At the time I first wrote about this I consulted my brother, who not only cares and knows about football, but is used to my asking stupid questions. He predicted the Packers would win. He was right. Kerry lost anyway. See if I ask my brother any more questions.

   Then there was the Debowy-Schulman Algorithm, a fancy sounding, highfalutin, pull-it-out-of-your-butt mathematical formula I found in the appropriately named Annals of Improbable Research. The guys behind it, who coincidentally are named Debowy and Schulman, created an Electability Factor based on a complex formula which includes data such as how long the candidates have held various political offices, their military career, and whether they’ve been divorced or dropped a nuclear bomb. According to their calculations, Bush would win. Chalk up one for modern pseudoscience.

   Speaking of science, after sifting through the four psychics who made election predictions online — just kidding, there were actually at least 17 of them — I put my faith in Bob91322 because of his long post on the About.com Paranormal Phenomenon Forum in which he said he not only predicted the 2000 presidential election within 100,000 votes and 2 electoral votes, but was the only psychic to predict that Gore would win the popular vote and Bush the electoral vote. It’s hard to argue with that kind of accuracy. This time around Mr. 91322 predicted that Kerry would beat Bush by 5 million votes and 130 electoral votes. If only he could have predicted how wrong he would turn out to be. He also made state-by-state predictions, in which he blew Ohio, blew Florida, and, oh, you get the idea.

   The summed predictors indicated that Kerry would win, since he nabbed six categories over Bush’s two. But apparently the margin of error was a little high. As in almost across the board. Not to worry, unlike some presidential winners, I learn from my mistakes. That’s why I’m working on refining my methods before the Iraqi presidential election in January. I’d better. It could be tough finding out how the estimated 250 candidates part their hair.

©2004 Mad Dog Productions, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
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